Estimation of waste from computers and mobile phones in Iran

• Combining time-series model and logistic equation was estimated amount of e-waste.
• Total amount of waste generated until 2016 for PC will be equal to 20.0 million units.
• For mobile phones until 2014, 39.0 million units will be obsolete.
• Due to the valuable materials e-waste there must be recycling facilities are required.

The amount of waste electrical and electronic equipment (WEEE) has been rapidly growing in recent years. Estimation close to reality of the future amounts of WEEE as a function of time is critical to effective their management. Wastes from mobile phones and computers are one of the several subgroups of WEEE. The objective of this study was to estimate past and future trends in the generation of obsolete computers and mobile phones in Iran. For this purpose a combination of two models were used. At the beginning, time-series multiple lifespan model was used to estimate outflows end-of-life obsolete equipment. Then, using the simplified logistic function model by Excel software, the values of obsolete computers and mobile phones in the future were estimated. The study found that the amount of E-waste generation in the country was 20 million wasted computers until 2016 and 39 million wasted mobile phones until 2014. Results of the time series model analysis showed a total amount of 2.8 million waste computers would be reused by 2016 and 4.2 million mobile phones would be reused by 2014. The results of the logistic equation indicate that by the year 2040 there will be 50 million units of obsolete computers. According to the same model 90 million mobile phones will be obsolete by 2035. Increase in the number of computers and mobile phones was fitted into the logistic model and the results showed that the saturation level of generation of obsolete computers and mobile phones are 24 and 21 years respectively following the base year 2016 and 2014.