Long-term global availability of steel scrap

• Estimated past iron flow indicates consumption of old scrap is not extensive.
• Future availability of scrap will be insufficient to satisfy steel demand.
• The historical EOL recycling rate is 53% for the entirety of discarded steel.
• This is consistent with worldsteel estimates of 83% using a different definition.
• Even by 2050, primary steelmaking is expected to remain dominant.

Primary steelmaking involves CO2-intensive processes, but the expansion of secondary steel production is limited by the global availability of steel scrap. The present work examines global scrap consumption in the past (1870–2012) and future scrap availability (2013–2050) based on the historical trend. The results reveal that (i) historically, the consumption of old scrap has been insufficient compared with the amounts of discarded steel, and (ii) based on historical scrap consumption, the future availability of scrap will not be sufficient to satisfy the two assumed cases of steel demand. Primary steelmaking is expected to remain the dominant process, at least up until 2050. Under the reference-demand case of 2.19 billion tons in crude steel production by 2050, the total production of pig iron and direct reduced iron could reach 1.35 billion tons. Consumption of old scrap could reach 0.76 billion tons. Because the availability of scrap will be limited in the context of the global total, it is important to research and develop innovative low-carbon technologies for primary steelmaking and to explore their economic viability if we are to aim for achieving large reductions in CO2 emissions from the iron and steel industry.

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