Evolution of aluminum recycling initiated by the introduction of next-generation vehicles and scrap sorting technology

This paper discusses how the recycling of aluminum will change between now and 2050, focusing on the introduction of next-generation vehicles and scrap sorting. To evaluate the recycling potential, aluminum demand and discard in Europe, the United States, Japan, and China are estimated by material flow analysis (MFA). The MFA distinguishes between wrought and cast alloys so that the chemical composition of each flow is taken into account. A comparison of demand with discard is used to evaluate the amounts of primary aluminum required and scrap that cannot be recycled because of a high concentration of alloying elements. The results of these investigations show that the introduction of electric vehicles leads to a decrease in the demand for cast alloys, which generates 6.1 Mt of unrecyclable scrap in 2030. The results also indicate the effectiveness of scrap sorting in the future: if scrap sorting is carried out for end-of-life vehicles, it mitigates the generation of unrecyclable scrap and reduces the primary aluminum requirement by 15–25%.

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► World aluminum demand and discard will reach 50 and 45 million tons in 2050.
► Recycling enables future demand to be filled with less primary aluminum than today.
► Rapid penetration of electric vehicles will transiently disturb the recycling.
► Applying scrap sorting to ELV scrap reduces primary aluminum consumption by 15–25%.