An integrated model for technology forecasting to reduce pollutant emission in China's pulp industry

The Chinese government has been implementing a strict pollutants gross control policy during the 11th Five Year Plan period. Primary pollutants reduction (COD & SO2) is one of the major concerns of industrial environmental management. This paper constructs a technology selection model for industrial pollutants reduction by incorporating mass flow analysis of the production system, bottom-up modeling methodology, and linear programming for optimizing annualized discounted cost. A case study of COD emission control is carried out on the Chinese pulp industry, the nation's leading source of industrial COD discharge. The model is used to generate and analyze the technology prospects and COD emission situations under various scenarios for 2010, 2020 and 2030.