Traffic Incident Prediction on Intersections Based on HMM

The intersection is an area where many accidents occur. Reasons for accidents are due to complicated intersection designs and the congested travel conditions. For these reasons, traffic incident detection is more complicated. This paper uses the intersections of Huaihai South Road and Jiefang Road as an example. According to the vehicle operation and phase timing, the situations of two vehicle's relative movement on four phase intersections are summarized. The motion vectors of the conflicting vehicle are quantized on the basis of vehicle tracking. Then, the HMM is used to classify the traffic conflicts of the intersection. Finally, numerical experiments verify that the algorithm is able to classify the conflict when the traffic is normal. Furthermore, the algorithm can forecast the traffic accidents (such as bumping, tandem, and stop) which occurred in the intersection.

摘要交叉口是一个交通事故多发区, 除了交叉口设计复杂外, 更重要的是交叉口车辆行驶情况比较杂乱, 使得交叉口交通冲突的检测难度增加.本文以淮安市淮海南路与解放路交叉口为例, 根据车辆运行与相位配时总结在该四相位控制的交叉口具有冲突的两辆车的相对运动情况, 在车辆跟踪的基础上对具有冲突的车辆进行运动矢量量化, 采用HMM(隐马尔可夫模型)对该交叉口的交通冲突进行分类, 并通过实验验证该算法能对正常交通下的车辆运行状态进行冲突分类.通过冲突的检测可以提前预测发生在交叉口处的交通事故(如碰撞‘追尾’突然停车等)和危险状态.