Quasi-Dynamic Model for Evolution of Network Travel Time under Incident

To describe the interaction and evolution rule of network travel time and route choice probability, the paper proposes a quasi-dynamic model with the road section flow state and logit principle. The diverge-merge model and function between speed and density is used to compute section storage vehicles and travel time of non-incident section by analyzing traffic flow evolution process of incident section. The Kinematic wave theory is adopted to compute queue length and travel time of incident section. The results indicate that: before incident, traffic flow and route choice probability approaches an equilibrium with a long-time simulation; during the incident period, because of the interactions among queue length, route travel time and route choice probability, these three variables present concussed. With the incident clearance, route travel time decreases continuously; after queue dispersing, the route travel time and route choice probability approaches a new equilibrium within certain time.

摘要为描述交通事故影响下路网中走行时间与用户择路概率的相互作用及其演变规律，建立了基于事故路段及非事故路段流量状态及LOGIT原则的拟动态模型。利用分流合流模型及速度-密度函数，分别建立路段容纳车辆数和非事故路段走行时间模型，通过分析事故路段交通流的演化过程，利用交通波理论估计排队长，建立事故路段走行时间模型。结果表明：事故发生前，经过一定的模拟时段后，路网交通流趋近稳定，各条路径的选择概率趋于平衡；事故持续时段内，排队长度、路径走行时间、路径选择概率相互影响，且均呈现出震荡状态；事故清除后，路径走行时间持续下降；排队完全消散后，经过一定时段稳定后的路径走行时间和路径选择概率达到新的平衡。