کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
11004808 | 1477894 | 2018 | 40 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Polytomous response financial distress models: The role of accounting, market and macroeconomic variables
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
مدلهای دشواری مالی واکنشهای پلیتوم: نقش حسابداری، متغیرهای بازار و متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی
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کلمات کلیدی
پیش بینی ورشکستگی، بحران مالی، شرکت های فهرست شده،
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی
اقتصاد، اقتصادسنجی و امور مالی
اقتصاد و اقتصادسنجی
چکیده انگلیسی
We apply polytomous response logit models to investigate financial distress and bankruptcy across three states for UK listed companies over a period exceeding 30â¯years and utilising around 20,000 company year observations. Results suggest combining accounting, market and macroeconomic variables enhances the performance, accuracy and timeliness of models of corporate credit risk. Models produced contribute to the prediction and early warning systems literature by investigating the distress/failure process with enhanced granularity. We employ marginal effects to assess individual covariates' impact on the probability of falling into each state. The new insights on individual risk factors are confirmed by analysis of vectors of changes in predicted probabilities of falling into a state of financial distress and corporate failure following changes in the level of individual covariates. Resulting models provide a better understanding of different risk factors and can help practitioners detect financial distress and failure in a timely fashion.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: International Review of Financial Analysis - Volume 59, October 2018, Pages 276-289
Journal: International Review of Financial Analysis - Volume 59, October 2018, Pages 276-289
نویسندگان
Mario Hernandez Tinoco, Phil Holmes, Nick Wilson,