کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
1104788 954153 2009 12 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
MEASURING UNCERTAINTY IN LONG-TERM TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING FROM DEMOGRAPHIC MODELLING: Case Study of the Paris and Montreal Metropolitan Areas
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی علوم اجتماعی تحقیقات ایمنی
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
MEASURING UNCERTAINTY IN LONG-TERM TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING FROM DEMOGRAPHIC MODELLING: Case Study of the Paris and Montreal Metropolitan Areas
چکیده انگلیسی

Uncertainty on traffic forecasts may have an impact on reimbursement scheduling for investment, as well as for scenarios for operating costs. Even the best projections are based on models and assumptions, thus raising the question of their accuracy. Indeed, long term investments are risky and it is important to cope with uncertainty. This paper deals with the uncertainty on a long term projection with an Age-Cohort approach. We used the jackknife technique to estimate confidence intervals and observe that the demographic approach outlines the structural determinants for long term trends of mobility.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: IATSS Research - Volume 33, Issue 2, 2009, Pages 9–20
نویسندگان
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