Neuro-fuzzy Methods in Cognitive Systems of Monitoring and Forecasting of Scientific and Technological Development of the Country

On the basis of many national and international research a neural network model of the trajectory of and techno-economic development, which allows to calculate the level and rate of fuel and energy is developed and the method of evaluating the effectiveness of technological innovation projects on a range of qualitative and quantitative parameters based on the construction of the neuro-fuzzy solution tree is proposed. The developed model, in addition to the promising project choosing, explains the decision making process in an understandable way, in the structure of the neuro-diagnostic decision rules “If ... then.” Thus, this technique allows to determine the significance of the indicators (trends) of the formation of new technological cycles and to identify the reference parameters of the social dimension of the economy. Data received as a result of the intellectual analysis can be used by experts to assess the efficiency of the automated calculation of the effectiveness of technology projects in order to predict the scientific and technological development of the country and make necessary recommendations to the political and socio-economic spheres. Research results can be used both by private and public companies and organizations. This will help to assess and predict future changes, give proper recommendations to scientific institutions in key areas: such as security and counter-terrorism; living systems; nanosystem and materials Industry, information and telecommunication systems, advanced weapons, military and special equipment, management natural resources, transport, aviation and space systems, energy and energy efficiency.