High Speed Rail (HSR) Induced Demand Models

Recent High Speed Rail (HSR) investments in Italy, together with the entrance in the HSR market of a new private operator competing with the national incumbent, create the conditions for a unique case study, to investigate the behaviour of long- distance passengers. In this paper a modelling framework developed to forecast the national passenger demand for different macroeconomic, transport supply, and HSR marketing scenarios is presented, focusing on the sub-models forecasting induced demand.