Aircraft Trajectory Planning Under Uncertainty by Light Propagation

In the SESAR framework (Single European Sky ATM Research), the need to increase the air traffic capacity motivated the 4D (space + time) aircraft trajectory planning. This paper deals with an important Air Traffic Management (ATM) problem that consists in generating sets of 4D conflict-free trajectories (the tactical planning problem). The Light Propagation Algorithm (LPA) was introduced in [1] to deal with this problem. LPA has recently been shown to manage successfully a full day of traffic over the French airspace, removing all conflicts while satisfying ATM constraints.In this paper, we adapt the LPA to take into account uncertainties in trajectory prediction. We introduce and test a new algorithm called u/LPA (LPA under uncertainty) on the same day of traffic. For some situations, uncertainties reduce so much the search space that the standard algorithm cannot guarantee conflict free situation. As a consequence, one must include some time constraints for few trajectories (so-called RTA points: Real Time of Arrival constraints) in order to remove the remaining conflicts. The goal of RTA points is to impose an aircraft to be at a specified position at some given time. This results into a new optimization formulation of the tactical trajectory planning problem involving the decision as to where/when RTA points should be imposed. In order to solve this new problem, here we are content with a simple heuristic that yields encouraging results.