Study on the Transit Network Evaluation Method Based on the Transit Ridership Model

Traditional four-step travel forecasting models are usually used to predict changes in car travel patterns and to evaluate the road transportation system. The application is unsatisfactory when they are used to evaluate the transit transportation system. Based on the transit origin-destination (OD) adjustment, this paper proposes a framework on future transit network evaluations, where the transit ridership model and OD difference method are simultaneously used. The proposed method formulates the relationship between transit ridership and zonal population, employment, transit service level, and so on. In addition, the difference between transit counts and estimates for base year are considered in the development of the transit OD for future year. It is expected to perform better than conventional models in terms of transit network evolutions. The validation of the proposed method is tested in Fuzhou City Transit Development Project.