Conventional vs Electric Commercial Vehicle Fleets: A Case Study of Economic and Technological Factors Affecting the Competitiveness of Electric Commercial Vehicles in the USA

Electric commercial delivery trucks have the potential to substantially reduce greenhouse gas emissions and pollution and lower per-mile operating and maintenance costs. However, the initial purchase cost of electric vehicles is significantly higher than that of a conventional diesel truck. In addition, electric vehicles have a limited range that may lead to the well known problem commonly known as “range anxiety” due to the lack of nearby recharging stations. From a purely economic perspective, there is a cost tradeoff between low operating and maintenance costs of electric vehicles and their high initial capital costs. In this paper, a deterministic integer programming model is utilized to analyze the competitiveness of commercial electric vehicles. Utilizing realistic assumptions and a wide range of scenarios regarding fleet utilization and fuel efficiency, this research finds breakeven points where electric vehicles become competitive. Results show that under moderate to high utilization levels, the electric vehicles can be competitive.