A Multi-Level Fuzzy Linear Regression Model for Forecasting Industry Energy Demand of Iran

The aim of this paper is to develop a prediction model of energy demand of industry sector in Iran. A fuzzy-based approach is applied for the industry energy demand forecasting using socio-economic indicators. This approach is structured as a fuzzy linear regression (FLR). A multi-level FLR model is designed properly. This paper indeed proposes a multi-level FLR model by which the inputs to the ending level are obtained as outputs of the starting levels. Actual data from 1994-2008 are used to develop the multi-level FLR and illustrate capability of the approach in this regard. The estimation fuzzy problem for the model is formulated as a linear optimization problem and is solved using the linear programming based simplex method. Furthermore, having obtained the fuzzy parameters, the industry energy demand is predicted from 2011 to 2020. The results provide scientific basis for the planned development of the energy supply of industry sector in Iran.