A stochastic model of trip end disaggregation in traffic assignment to a transportation network

So far, traffic assignment to a network has been modelled by aggregating trip ends into zone centroids. The paper introduces a disaggregate model of trip ends, by associating to each zone a set of “anchor nodes” for network access and a random vector of terminal costs’ (or time) between trip ends and zonal anchors. These can be specified by OD pair. Assuming that terminal costs and network costs are independent, the system assignment can be performed in two stages, respectively network and terminal. A probit model based on Clark's formulas is recommended. A computation scheme is provided that loads OD flows by anchor pair onto the network in an efficient way. A binary case is addressed as illustration. Also reported is an application to the roadway network of the Paris area.