Russia’s lost position in Central Eurasia

Post-Soviet Russia has had the will to dominate its neighbors, but it no longer has the capability. Its Central Eurasian neighbors are much stronger and more confident about their independence, and Russia’s influence is being effectively challenged there by China, the West, and the democratic economies of Asia. Unable to modernize its economy and armed forces, Russia has failed to achieve most of the main objectives (excluding NATO, regaining trade exclusivity, ending drug, arms, and terrorist infiltration) it has set for itself in the “near abroad.” In view of Russia’s admitted weakness and its excessive reliance on oil and gas exports, some of its leaders favor redirecting its efforts to improving relations with the West. Aside from Central Asia, where Russia is cooperating with NATO in combating extreme Islamists operating in Afghanistan, Russia is trying to establish an Eurasian customs union with Kazakhstan and Belarus. But relations with most of the others have deteriorated to some degree in recent years.