China Up, Japan Down? Implications for the United States

China's rapid rise in economic and military power has occurred alongside the apparent decline of Japan, which has traditionally been America's closest ally in the post-World War II era. These shifting fortunes have led policymakers in all three capitals to reassess security relationships with the other two. This article predicts that, absent marked changes in the current distribution of power, Washington must deal with China as an equal partner while expecting that Japan will try to placate both sides even as it remains closer to Washington.