Platoon-based traffic flow model for estimating breakdown probability at single-lane expressway bottlenecks

This study investigates the mechanism of traffic breakdown and establishes a traffic flow model that precisely simulates the stochastic and dynamic processes of traffic flow at a bottleneck. The proposed model contains two models of stochastic processes associated with traffic flow dynamics: a model of platoon formation behind a bottleneck and a model of speed transitions within a platoon. After these proposed models are validated, they are applied to a simple one-way, one-lane expressway section containing a bottleneck, and the stochastic nature of traffic breakdown is demonstrated through theoretical exercises.

► A platoon-based traffic flow model estimating the breakdown probability with respect to traffic flow rate is developed.
► It assumes traffic breakdown comprises two stochastic processes: platoon formation and speed transition.
► Desired speed distribution is a key input of this model, which is inversely estimated from the observation of platoons.
► Increasing the variance and decreasing the mean of desired speed distribution will increase breakdown probability.
► Insights from this work inform management strategies controlling heterogeneity in driving behavior.