کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
1139803 | 1489421 | 2013 | 10 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Are forecast updates progressive?
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کلمات کلیدی
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه
سایر رشته های مهندسی
کنترل و سیستم های مهندسی
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
چکیده انگلیسی
Many macroeconomic forecasts and forecast updates like those from IMF and OECD typically involve both a model component, which is replicable, as well as intuition, which is non-replicable. Intuition is expert knowledge possessed by a forecaster. If forecast updates are progressive, forecast updates should become more accurate, on average, as the actual value is approached. Otherwise, forecast updates would be neutral. The paper proposes a methodology to test whether macroeconomic forecast updates are progressive, where the interaction between model and intuition is explicitly taken into account. The data set for the empirical analysis is for Taiwan, where we have three decades of quarterly data available of forecasts and their updates of the inflation rate and real GDP growth rate. Our empirical results suggest that the forecast updates for Taiwan are progressive, and that progress can be explained predominantly by improved intuition.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Mathematics and Computers in Simulation - Volume 93, July 2013, Pages 9-18
Journal: Mathematics and Computers in Simulation - Volume 93, July 2013, Pages 9-18
نویسندگان
Chia-Lin Chang, Philip Hans Franses, Michael McAleer,