کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
1139836 956697 2011 12 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Identifying shocks in regionally integrated East Asian economies with structural VAR and block exogeneity
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه سایر رشته های مهندسی کنترل و سیستم های مهندسی
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
Identifying shocks in regionally integrated East Asian economies with structural VAR and block exogeneity
چکیده انگلیسی

In this paper we use a structural VAR model with block exogeneity to investigate if external shocks originating from the USA played a dominant role in influencing the macroeconomic fluctuations in East Asia during the period 1978–2007. The empirical results show a dynamic effect of external shocks, implying that, even though regional integration appears to be deepening and accelerating, especially after the recent global financial crisis, the influence of US shocks on real output fluctuations in the East Asian region is still very strong. The effects of Chinese shocks show an increasing trend over time, but the impacts are still small and not comparable with those of US shocks. The world oil price shock has become increasingly important in influencing the stability of real output growth in the region. The results from variance decomposition and impulse response analysis confirm the findings. Even though Japanese firms have established production networks in East Asia through trade and investment, and China has also grown rapidly and become a key regional country, the results suggest that US influence in the region is still asymmetric and strong. Therefore, it is difficult to conclude that shocks to the East Asian economies have become more regionally oriented.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Mathematics and Computers in Simulation - Volume 81, Issue 7, March 2011, Pages 1353–1364
نویسندگان
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