Randomness in a mathematical model for the transmission of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV)

In this paper we study the dynamics of the transmission of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in human populations using random differential equation systems. Since initial conditions and some parameters of a RSV mathematical model are subject to some degree of uncertainty, randomness on the model are introduced. In order to modeling these uncertainties some probability distributions functions are assumed for initial conditions and parameters. Monte Carlo method is applied to investigate the effect of parameters and initial conditions uncertainties on the dynamics behavior of the infected and recovered populations. In addition numerical predictions for the future dynamics of RSV transmission in the population from the Spanish region of Valencia are obtained using confidence intervals and expected mean values for the infected and recovered populations are also obtained.