Early warning model for risks of energy prices and energy price ratios in China's energy engineering

Along with the rapid increase of China's energy demands, the energy engineering is facing more and more complex risks. The present research on the early warning methods of energy price risk mainly consider single prices and fail to analyze the energy price system integrally. In this paper, an early warning model of China's energy price is analyzed from the aspects of price fluctuation and price ratio structure through fitting the risk distributions of indices and applying the CGE model (Computable General Equilibrium). And Based on analyzing China's warning degrees of energy price ratios in the year 2015, it is found that the price ratios between electricity and crude oil are in the state of ‘dangerous’, while others are in the state of ‘highly dangerous’, including the price ratios between refined oil and crude oil, between the natural gas of resident and crude oil, between natural gas and coal and between electricity and coal.