کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
1161636 1490448 2010 10 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Predicting weather and climate: Uncertainty, ensembles and probability
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه فیزیک و نجوم فیزیک و نجوم (عمومی)
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
Predicting weather and climate: Uncertainty, ensembles and probability
چکیده انگلیسی

Simulation-based weather and climate prediction now involves the use of methods that reflect a deep concern with uncertainty. These methods, known as ensemble prediction methods, produce multiple simulations for predictive periods of interest, using different initial conditions, parameter values and/or model structures. This paper provides a non-technical overview of current ensemble methods and considers how the results of studies employing these methods should be interpreted, paying special attention to probabilistic interpretations. A key conclusion is that, while complicated inductive arguments might be given for the trustworthiness of probabilistic weather forecasts obtained from ensemble studies, analogous arguments are out of reach in the case of long-term climate prediction. In light of this, the paper considers how predictive uncertainty should be conveyed to decision makers.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part B: Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics - Volume 41, Issue 3, September 2010, Pages 263–272
نویسندگان
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