کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
1510320 | 1511159 | 2015 | 7 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Operational Evaluation of a Wind-farm Forecasting System
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
ارزیابی عملی یک سیستم پیش بینی باد-مزرعه
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موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه
مهندسی انرژی
انرژی (عمومی)
چکیده انگلیسی
Performance of a wind-forecasting system for a wind-farm in Ireland is reported. Forecasts were based on ensembles constructed from HARMONIE model runs every 6 hours, along with extra high-resolution HARMONIE runs every 12 hours. Statistical post-processing with Bayes Model Averaging (BMA) removed bias very effectively. The “raw” incremental skill provided by each extra ensemble member was negligible, but the net value, after BMA post-processing, was significantly larger. Thus, a small ensemble with BMA is more skillful than a larger ensemble with simple averaging only. A larger ensemble is still more skillful than a smaller one, if both use BMA.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Energy Procedia - Volume 76, August 2015, Pages 216-222
Journal: Energy Procedia - Volume 76, August 2015, Pages 216-222