Long-term Electricity Demand Forecasting of Sumatera System Based on Electricity Consumption Intensity and Indonesia Population Projection 2010-2035

An important step in energy management especially in electricity planning is demand forecasting. A simple model is presented using LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternative Planning System) as a tool and Sumatera systems as a case study. It aims to be easy to understand and applicable. Electricity demand in household sector is calculated based on data of population, household size, electrification ratio and electricity intensity. On the other hand, electricity demand in non-household sector is calculated as a product of number of customers and its electricity intensity. The base year is 2010 and 2025 is the end of forecasting period. The result shows that electricity demand in Sumatera system would be increase more than seven times compared to base year value. A comparative study was also carried out.