Modeling of Manufacturing Technologies During Ramp-up

The production ramp-up is of increasing importance for the manufacturing industry and has a significant impact on the product's success in terms of costs and time to reach full capacity utilization (time-to-volume). During the production ramp-up the instability of the production system and the quality of manufactured products are significantly influenced by the manufacturing technologies deployed. Furthermore, an analysis of the existing approaches to optimize production ramp-ups has shown that the selection and optimization of manufacturing technologies regarding the ramp-up targets is still insufficiently considered. Therefore, the aim of this paper is the development of a new ramp-up model that enables a prediction of the ramp-up behavior of manufacturing technologies and a selection of the most suitable one according to the given ramp-up situation. Firstly, different approaches from the field of ramp-up optimization and manufacturing technology evaluation are discussed, and the deficits are pointed out. Secondly, dynamic impact factors on the ramp-up performance of manufacturing technologies are systematically identified. Thirdly, the impact factors are transferred into a new analytical model which also considers stochastic influences on the ramp-up behavior. Fourthly, the analytical model is implemented into a hybrid simulation model, which is based on a combined discrete event and continuous flow simulation. The resulting simulation model can be utilized for the calculation of ramp-up curves for different manufacturing technologies as well as for the evaluation of the ramp-up performance of the technologies investigated. Finally, the model is validated with a use case from a German automotive manufacturer.