Scenario Design Approach to Envisioning Sustainable Manufacturing Industries to 2050

There is an increasing need for the manufacturing industry to achieve environmental sustainability. Scenario design is a promising approach to delineating multiple visions of sustainable manufacturing industries (SMIs). This paper aims to discuss advantages and challenges of a scenario design approach for achieving SMIs. To this end, we review existing scenarios and methods associated with SMIs. Using a backcasting scenario design method, we carry out a case study of Japan's SMI to 2050 in order to examine the potential of scenario design. The results reveal that computer-aided scenario design is helpful for clarifying the logical structure and rationales of the scenarios.