Geometric Quantification of Cost Uncertainty Propagation: A Case Study

This paper presents a novel technique for quantifying cost uncertainty propagation through the metrics of spatial geometry. Case study data was drawn from U.S. Department of Defense Selected Acquisition Report Summary Tables covering total base year cost variance of acquisition programs for between 1986 and 2013 for various whole product life cycle phases (i.e. concept, development, manufacturing, utilisation, support and retirement). The cost variances for quantity, schedule, engineering, estimating, other and support are treated as manifested uncertainty and considered as vertices of simplex geometries propagating over time thus creating an uncertainty “cloud”. Length, size, volume, density, mass and symmetry are investigated for identifying, describing and predicting cloud propagation. The hypothesis is raised that the symmetry metric is suitable for determining confidence in the propagation behavior of cloud uncertainty across the whole product life cycle. Further work is suggested to develop standards for the evaluation of topological symmetries in cost estimation.