Approach for Predicting Production Scenarios Focused on Cross Impact Analysis

One of the most consistent challenges in business is anticipating what the future holds and what impact it may have on current production systems. The scenario technique is a well-established method for developing and forecasting multiple future development paths for companies. However, this method is mostly employed to develop and to support strategic long-term decisions. The core idea of the approach introduced in this paper is to convey the future impact of today's decisions on production systems to employees involved in production planning processes. With the help of immersive visualization, performed in virtual reality (VR) systems, planning participants can perceive how the factory must adapt to fit future demands.In this paper, the focus is on the fourth phase of the scenario technique – so called scenario development – and, in particular, the cross impact analysis. With this methodology, the interrelations, or cross impacts of the different basic elements are determined. The cross impact analysis results serve as a basis for the development of a standardized tool that can be used to create probable production scenarios out of given production systems. This standardized tool will facilitate the usage of the scenario technique for factory planning projects, as it focuses the immense diversity of future uncertainties companies are faced with on the factory level.