Scenario Analysis of the Diffusion of Fuel Cells in the Residential Sector

A fuel cell is a promising element for saving energy by utilizing waste heat for hot water supply. When assessing the influences of fuel cells in a real world, however, the question is how many fuel cells will be diffused in a region because there are many unpredictable factors, such as national energy policies and consumers’ lifestyles. This paper takes a scenario approach to analyzing the environmental impact caused by the diffusion of fuel cells under different social situations. A case study describes three scenarios for estimating the diffusion of solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC) for apartment buildings in 2030, in which conjoint analysis is undertaken for quantifying consumers’ preferences.