Model-based calculations of the probability of a country’s nuclear proliferation decisions

This paper presents an attempt to project a country’s nuclear proliferation-related behaviors by using quantitative models with the use of open source information. The approach is based on the combined use of data on a country’s economic status, security environment, political development, nuclear technological capability, and commitment to nuclear nonproliferation. Projections of country’s proliferation-related behaviors were made by using the multinomial logit regression and the Weibull and Cox event history modeling for 189 countries. Results from the developed models were compared with the historical records from 1945 through 2000 with respect to “explore”, “pursue”, and “acquire” decisions. Overall, this study indicated that quantitative models could be useful in providing warnings against potential nuclear proliferation attempts. Key variables of importance in quantitative modeling of proliferation-related behaviors were identified and discussed.