The cost of the Swedish nuclear waste program

The nuclear waste programs, which nuclear power countries are implementing today, are extremely long-term and some of the largest construction projects ever undertaken. Sweden has 12 nuclear power plants and the Swedish nuclear waste program is estimated to cost about 80 thousand million SEK or approximately nine thousand million euro. A fiscal act passed in 1981 regulated the financing system and responsibilities with respect to nuclear waste. According to this Act SKB, a company owned by the operators of nuclear power plants, must estimate the cost of the project each year and, based on this, the annual fee which must be put aside to cover any future payments. The first estimate was delivered in 1982. According to the latest of these reports about two-thirds of the work still remains undone. The purpose of this paper is to review the cost development of the Swedish nuclear waste program through the 23 annual cost estimates which SKB has produced. Based on earlier empirical studies it identifies some factors which may cause future cost escalation. The estimated cost of the program is about the same today as in 1982 although cost has escalated since 1996. Substantial uncertainties remain to be eliminated, at the same time as there are factors which should help the program not to escalate such as no shortage of funds or time to plan, and the possibility of exploiting future technical innovations to lower the handling costs.