Quantification of provincial-level carbon emissions from energy consumption in China

Greenhouse gas emission inventories are useful tools for monitoring air quality and assisting local policy development. This article estimates CO2 emission inventories from energy consumption and carbon intensities of provinces and municipalities in Mainland China in 1990, 1995, 2000, and 2005–2008 using the IPCC mass balance approach. Results show that China's coal-based energy structure and unique economic development have heavily impacted CO2 emissions. Fortunately, although coal consumption has increased to over 70% of all fuel use, the share of CO2 emissions from coal has gradually decreased due to energy consumption restructuring. The switch from coal-dominance to cleaner, renewable energies (wind, solar, natural gas, nuclear power, geothermal, biomass energy) will undoubtedly reduce CO2 emissions in China. Results also indicate that carbon intensity has improved steadily, as China's economic development introduces new technologies intended to minimize environmental pollution and destruction. Our results suggest that China's CO2 emissions may not be as high as expected in future, and will gradually lessen.