Influence of massive heat-pump introduction on the electricity-generation mix and the GHG effect: Comparison between Belgium, France, Germany and The Netherlands

To evaluate the environmental impact of massive heat-pump introduction on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in different electricity-generation systems, dynamic simulations have been carried out for four European countries, namely, Belgium, France, Germany and the Netherlands. For this purpose, the simulations are performed with Promix, a tool that models the overall electricity-generation system. Three heating devices are considered for each country, namely classic fossil-fuel heating, heat pumps and electric resistance heating. Both direct heat-pump heating with a coefficient of performance (COP) of 2.5 and accumulation heat-pump heating with a COP of 5 are investigated. The introduction of electric heating in an electricity-generation system increases the demand for electricity and generates a shift of emissions from fossil-fuel heating systems to electrical plants. The results of the simulations reveal that the massive introduction of either heat pump or resistance heating is always favourable to the environment in France. The most environmentally friendly scenario in 2010 is projected to reduce GHG emissions by about 3.8 Mton compared to the reference scenario. In Belgium and Germany, the largest reduction in GHG emissions occurs with accumulation heat pumps. Belgium can save up to 220 kton of GHG emissions, while Germany can attain reductions of 800 kton in 2010. In the Netherlands, a significant reduction can be achieved by considering the addition of gas-fired combined cycle (CC) power plants, together with the introduction of electric heating, resulting in emissions savings of 410 kton.