Prospective scenarios for the adoption of CCS technologies in the Iberian Peninsula

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) has been identified by several studies as a promising option in the greenhouse gas mitigation portfolio of different countries. Since the Iberian Peninsula is a region with a large availability of renewable energy sources (RES), the role of CCS deserves deeper analysis. Using the TIMES_IBERIA optimization model, this paper investigates the contribution of several factors (i.e. climate policy, RES and CCS cost curves, and gas prices) that might promote or constrain the adoption of CCS technologies as part of a portfolio for reducing CO2 emissions from the power generation and industrial sector, in the medium–long term (2020–2050), within the Iberian Peninsula energy system.CCS becomes cost effective only after mature renewables, namely wind onshore and hydropower, are fully exploited up to their technical-economic potential. An ambitious long term climate target (−50% reduction in 2050 over 1990) contributes to an early penetration of CCS (in 2025). It penetrates more in the power sector (60% of captured emissions) than in industry (40%), and most of it is implemented in Spain (95%), not in Portugal. CCS penetration appears very sensitive to the costs of CCS technologies, while much less sensitive to the costs of renewable technologies.

► CCS is a selected mitigation option in a current climate policy extension scenario.
► Ambitious climate target in 2050 anticipates CCS adoption to 2025.
► CCS adoption is affected by an increase of the expected costs of renewables.
► CCS penetration in Iberia is highly sensitive to the costs of CCS technologies.