A combination of existing concepts and approaches to take on energy system transitions – The Republic of Panama as a case-study

The impact of our energy systems on the climate mandates an energy system transition. In this paper a combination of existing concepts and approaches to take on such transitions is discussed. This combination starts with first defining the unit of analysis, after which actors in the socio-technical energy system are charted through literature research and interviews. Next, using social network analysis, regimes and niches are identified to depict the unit of analysis in a more useful manner for managing transitions. The step hereafter consists of creating internal and external scenarios based on critical uncertainties to insure transition management efforts against uncertainty in and outside the unit of analysis. Moving to transition management, robustness analysis is then used to evaluate strategies and policies in all combinations of these internal and external scenarios to get to an optimum set of strategies and policies which are used to form a normative scenario. This will be used to get stakeholders behind the transition effort. This combination of approaches and concepts is used in the case of the Republic of Panama. It results in a clear overview of the energy system, impediments and opportunities regarding transition, possible futures, and the validity of strategies and policies in different scenarios.