Topics in data assimilation: Stochastic processes

Stochastic models with varying degrees of complexity are increasingly widespread in the oceanic and atmospheric sciences. One application is data assimilation, i.e., the combination of model output with observations to form the best picture of the system under study. For any given quantity to be estimated, the relative weights of the model and the data will be adjusted according to estimated model and data error statistics, so implementation of any data assimilation scheme will require some assumption about errors, which are considered to be random. For dynamical models, some assumption about the evolution of errors will be needed. Stochastic models are also applied in studies of predictability.The formal theory of stochastic processes was well developed in the last half of the twentieth century. One consequence of this theory is that methods of simulation of deterministic processes cannot be applied to random processes without some modification. In some cases the rules of ordinary calculus must be modified.The formal theory was developed in terms of mathematical formalism that may be unfamiliar to many oceanic and atmospheric scientists. The purpose of this article is to provide an informal introduction to the relevant theory, and to point out those situations in which that theory must be applied in order to model random processes correctly.