کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
1898978 1044816 2007 7 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Probability distribution for the number of cycles between successive regime transitions for the Lorenz model
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه ریاضیات ریاضیات کاربردی
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
Probability distribution for the number of cycles between successive regime transitions for the Lorenz model
چکیده انگلیسی

The Lorenz model has been widely used for exploring many real world problems. In this paper we obtain, with the help of an invariant manifold technique, the return map for the maximum value of the variable xx of the model and use this return map to derive the simple, empirically obtained, regime transition rules for forecasting regime changes and length in the new regime for the model. The probability distribution for number of cycles between successive regime transitions of the Lorenz model may be of interest in many disciplines. We apply the Perron–Frobenius algorithm over the return map to estimate the probability distribution for the number of cycles between successive regime transitions. These probabilities are also estimated for the forced Lorenz model, which is a conceptual model to explore the effects of sea surface temperature on seasonal rainfall.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena - Volume 233, Issue 1, 1 September 2007, Pages 14–20
نویسندگان
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