A novel scale predicting postoperative delirium (POD) in patients undergoing cerebrovascular surgery

• The present scale is a promising a tool for predicting POD.
• This scale is first measure useful in surgical operations of cerebrovascular disease.
• The present scale demonstrated high likelihood of predicting delirium severity.

PurposeThe purpose of this study was to develop and test a scale for predicting POD in patients undergoing cerebrovascular surgery.MethodsThe predictive scale for POD was composed of 32 items reflecting the strongest risk factors as determined by a literature review. The NEECHAM Confusion Scale determined POD onset and severity.ResultsDelirium developed in 38 (31.1%) of the 122 patients in our sample. Logistic regression revealed the following risk factors: dehydration, age, disturbance of consciousness, underlying illness, and anxiety or depression. The final scale was weighted by referring to odds ratios. The area under the curve was 0.844 (95% CI = 0.766–0.921). The possible total score on this scale was 20 points. A cutoff score of 11 was set for risk of POD (patients scoring over 12 were considered at higher risk). The median score was 8 (range: 4–9) in the non-delirium group and 13 (range: 9–16) in the delirium group (U = 499.0; df = 120; p < 0.001). Scale scores were moderately correlated with delirium duration (ρ = 0.532; p < 0.001).ConclusionThe present scale is a promising a tool for predicting POD but needs to be studied further.