Early prediction of the need for non-routine discharge planning for the elderly

Successful home return from hospital admission is a key issue to provide quality healthcare in a society with numerous older subjects. Therefore, a screening method for early identification of patients who require intensive, non-routine discharge planning needs to be established. We have developed a 7-item screening sheet (the screening sheet at admission: SSA) and conducted a prospective cohort study to examine its usefulness in predicting the need for non-routine discharge planning. The SSA score yielded an area under receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.82. Moreover, a cutoff score of 2 or higher gave sensitivity, specificity and positive and negative predictive values of 0.82, 0.72, 0.13 and 0.99, respectively. A stepwise logistic regression model demonstrated that age of 75 years or more and impairment in basic activities of daily living (ADL) were significantly associated with requirement for non-routine discharge planning in surgical patients, while living alone or with a spouse aged 75 or older and readmission within 1 month were also significant predictors in medical patients. The SSA score may be useful in identifying patients who need further assessment and planning. While the four items were particularly important predictors, differences between medical and surgical patients should also be considered.