Optimal Threshold and Time of Absolute Lymphocyte Count Assessment for Outcome Prediction after Bone Marrow Transplantation

• Day 60 absolute lymphocyte count (ALC) of 300/μL is the optimum prognostic threshold.
• Patients with ALC >300 on day 60 have better overall survival, relapse-free survival, and nonrelapse mortality, and less graft-versus-host disease.
• Conditioning regimen may influence lymphocyte recovery after bone marrow transplantation.

The recovery pace of absolute lymphocyte count (ALC) is prognostic after hematopoietic stem cell transplantation. Previous studies have evaluated a wide range of ALC cutoffs and time points for predicting outcomes. We aimed to determine the optimal ALC value for outcome prediction after bone marrow transplantation (BMT). A total of 518 patients who underwent BMT for acute leukemia or myelodysplastic syndrome between 1999 and 2010 were divided into a training set and a test set to assess the prognostic value of ALC on days 30, 60, 90, 120, 180, as well as the first post-transplantation day of an ALC of 100, 200, 300, 400, 500, and 1000/μL. In the training set, the best predictor of overall survival (OS), relapse-free survival (RFS), and nonrelapse mortality (NRM) was ALC on day 60. In the entire patient cohort, multivariable analyses demonstrated significantly better OS, RFS, and NRM and lower incidence of graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) in patients with an ALC >300/μL on day 60 post-BMT, both including and excluding patients who developed GVHD before day 60. Among the patient-, disease-, and transplant-related factors assessed, only busulfan-based conditioning was significantly associated with higher ALC values on day 60 in both cohorts. The optimal ALC cutoff for predicting outcomes after BMT is 300/μL on day 60 post-transplantation.