Expected long-term survival of older patients diagnosed with non-Hodgkin lymphoma in 2008–2012

Background: New therapeutic options have led to substantial increases in survival expectations of patients with non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) in recent years. In contrast to many malignancies, survival in older patients has improved in NHL at a rate similar to that in younger patients. In the past, the impact of innovations on long-term survival of NHL patients on the population level has been disclosed only with substantial delay. Methods: We employ a novel model-based projection method to estimate survival expectations of NHL patients age 60+ diagnosed in 2008–2012. Preliminary empirical evaluation of the method using historical data indicates excellent performance in projection of age specific and overall 5- and 10-year relative survival. Results: Overall 5- and 10-year survival projections for 2008–2012 were 67.5% and 56.9%, respectively, 8.2 percentage units (% units) and 15.2% units, respectively, higher than the most recent survival estimates available from traditional cohort analysis. Projected survival decreased with age, ranging from 79.1% for patients age 60–64 to 54.3% for patients age 80+. Projected survival estimates for diffuse large B-cell lymphoma and follicular lymphoma were 59% and 84.9%, respectively. Survival estimates by model-based projection were substantially higher than available cohort estimates for all age groups including 80+, each specific morphology examined, nodal and extranodal disease, and both genders. Conclusions: Patients over 60 diagnosed with NHL in 2008–2012 have much higher long-term survival expectations than suggested by previously available survival statistics.