Incidence of bone metastases and survival after a diagnosis of bone metastases in breast cancer patients

• During the last few decades, the overall incidence of bone metastases after breast cancer has decreased.
• Bone metastases remain a major source of morbidity in late stage breast cancer patients.
• Incidence of bone metastases after breast cancer is higher in certain clinical subgroups.
• Survival after bone metastases is higher in breast cancer patients with bone-only metastases.

Background: Bone is the most common metastatic site associated with breast cancer. Using a database of women with breast cancer treated at Guy's Hospital, London 1976–2006 and followed until end 2010, we determined incidence of and survival after bone metastases. Methods: We calculated cumulative incidence of bone metastases considering death without prior bone metastases as a competing risk. Risk of bone metastases was modelled through Cox-regression. Survival after bone metastases diagnosis was calculated using Kaplan–Meier methodology. Results: Of the 7064 women, 589 (22%) developed bone metastases during 8.4 years (mean). Incidence of bone metastases was significantly higher in younger women, tumour size >5 cm, higher tumour grade, lobular carcinoma and ≥four positive nodes, but was not affected by hormone receptor status. Median survival after bone metastases diagnosis was 2.3 years in women with bone-only metastases compared with <1 year in women with visceral and bone metastases. There was a trend for decreased survival for patients who developed visceral metastases early, and proportionately fewer patients in this group. Interpretation: Incidence of bone metastases has decreased but bone metastases remain a highly relevant clinical problem due to the large number of patients being diagnosed with breast cancer.