Coexistence of Abies alba (Mill.) – Fagus sylvatica (L.) and climate change impact in the Iberian Peninsula: A climatic-niche perspective approach

Abies alba Mill. (European silver fir) and Fagus sylvatica L. (beech) are Eurosiberian species dispersed over the Iberian Peninsula. Climate change predictions indicate a rise in temperature and a decrease in precipitation in this region, threatening the future existence of these species. In the present study we analyzed the future topo-climatic suitability of Abies alba and Fagus sylvatica and the mixed forests of these two species, using the General Linear Models technique and data from the third National Forest Inventory ( Ministerio de Agricultura PyA, 2007). We considered two modeling approaches based on niche theory: modeling community (Abieti-Fagetum) and overlapping individual species models. General trends showed an overall decrease in both species’ topo-climatic suitability and indicated that the Pyrenees will play a crucial role as a climatic refuge. The modeling approaches markedly differed, however, in their current and future spatial agreement. Despite good accuracy results, community modeling through co-occurrence does not encompass the environmental space of individual species prejudicing future assessments in new environmental situations, suggesting a need for future studies in community modeling.