کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
2426435 1553153 2016 9 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Inherently irrational? A computational model of escalation of commitment as Bayesian Updating
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
اساسا غیر منطقی؟ یک مدل محاسباتی از تشدید تعهد به عنوان به روز رسانی بیزی
کلمات کلیدی
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم زیستی و بیوفناوری علوم کشاورزی و بیولوژیک علوم دامی و جانورشناسی
چکیده انگلیسی


• Bayesian Updating predicted instances likely to demonstrate escalation and persistence under extinction conditions.
• Simulations revealed greater amounts of escalation and persistence in the presence of heterogeneous lags followed by wins.
• Bayesian Updating provides a model for understanding how commitment may escalate and persist despite continued failures.

Monte Carlo simulations were performed to analyze the degree to which two-, three- and four-step learning histories of losses and gains correlated with escalation and persistence in extended extinction (continuous loss) conditions. Simulated learning histories were randomly generated at varying lengths and compositions and warranted probabilities were determined using Bayesian Updating methods. Bayesian Updating predicted instances where particular learning sequences were more likely to engender escalation and persistence under extinction conditions. All simulations revealed greater rates of escalation and persistence in the presence of heterogeneous (e.g., both Wins and Losses) lag sequences, with substantially increased rates of escalation when lags comprised predominantly of losses were followed by wins. These methods were then applied to human investment choices in earlier experiments. The Bayesian Updating models corresponded with data obtained from these experiments. These findings suggest that Bayesian Updating can be utilized as a model for understanding how and when individual commitment may escalate and persist despite continued failures.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Behavioural Processes - Volume 127, June 2016, Pages 43–51
نویسندگان
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