Conversion of individual natural gas to district heating: Geographical studies of supply costs and consequences for the Danish energy system

Replacing individual natural gas heating with district heating based to increasing shares of renewable energy sources may further reduce CO2-emissions in the Danish Building mass, while increasing flexibility of the energy system to accommodate significantly larger amounts of variable renewable energy production. The present paper describes a geographical study of the potential to expand district heating into areas supplied with natural gas. The study uses a highly detailed spatial database of the built environment, its current and potential future energy demand, its supply technologies and its location relative to energy infrastructure. First, using a spatially explicit economic model, the study calculates the potentials and costs of connection to expanded district heating networks by supply technology. Then a comprehensive energy systems analysis is carried out to model how the new district heat can be supplied from an energy system with higher shares of renewable energy. It can be concluded on the basis of these analyses that the methods used proved highly useful to address issues of geographically dependent energy supply; however the spatio-economic model still is rather crude. The analyses suggest to expand district heating from present 46% to somewhere in between 50% and 70%. The most attractive potential is located around towns and cities. The study also suggests that CO2-emissions, fuel consumption and socio-economic costs can be reduced by expanding district heating, while at the same time investing in energy savings in the building mass as well as increased district heating network efficiency.