New environmental policy for system innovation: Casus alternatives for fossil motor fuels

The Fourth Dutch Environmental Policy Plan, released in 2001, was explicitly focused on long term system innovations to solve the very tenacious problems of climate change and global biodiversity [VROM (Environmental Department). Where there’s a will there’s a world, 4th National Environmental Policy Plan for the Netherlands 2001 [summary in English]]. This plan ushered in a new environmental policy. Five years later, in 2006, the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP) brought out the first analysis of the progress of these system innovation processes, showing that although new initiatives had been taken, long term policy was not yet a leading element.MNP has developed a new evaluation method for this analysis, which is not based on monitoring results of environmental quality or emission reduction, but on societal activities concerning perception of the problems, vision, R&D, experiments in practice and the analysis of driving forces behind new investments. Still, a policy evaluation is difficult without clear policy goals. System innovation is a goal-seeking process, and not only in terms of greenhouse gas emissions or levels of biodiversity in the long term. Since there are many technological and/or institutional possibilities established beforehand, choices are not clear. Neither is it wise to make a choice too soon. This is why an important element of the method is the focus on system options as potential goals.The evaluation method is explained and illustrated with system options related to mobility. Examples are fuel cells and hydrogen produced with Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) in northern Africa, energy transport included. Another system option is based on CSP, as well as on the direct use of electricity in plug-in hybrid cars. A third system option is based on liquid biofuels. Although far from giving a complete picture, these options provide good indications of transition processes in practice for developing alternatives for fossil motor fuels. Here the main on-going activities for these system options are described and the role of Dutch policy in the goal-seeking process is analyzed. Potential environmental effects of these system options have been calculated as a part of a broader sustainability assessment.