A strategy for introducing modern bioenergy into developing Asia to avoid dangerous climate change

This paper explores the cost-effective strategy for introducing modern bioenergy into developing Asia through the 21st century under a 400 ppmv CO2 stabilization constraint using a global energy model that treats the bioenergy sector in detail. The major conclusions are the following. First, under the 400 ppmv CO2 stabilization constraint, it is cost-effective to use modern bioenergy largely to generate heat and replace direct coal use in developing Asia in the first half of the century, because direct heat generation from modern biomass is efficient and expected to achieve large CO2 reduction. As second-generation bioenergy conversion technologies (mainly gasification-based technologies) become mature in the second half of the century, it becomes cost-effective to introduce biomass-derived hydrogen, electricity, and Fischer–Tropsch synfuels and bioethanol produced using these technologies into developing Asia instead of modern biomass-derived heat. All biomass gasification-based conversion technologies are combined with CO2 capture and storage from 2060, which enables negative CO2 emissions and makes a substantial contribution to achieving the stringent climate stabilization target. Second, due to its small availability of biomass resources, large-scale import of biofuels and wood pellets is inevitable in developing Asia except southeastern Asia under the CO2 constraint used here. It is shown that this contributes to diversifying liquid fuel import sources and improving energy security in developing Asia. Third, sensitivity analysis shows that these findings are robust to bioenergy-related cost parameters.