To the question of navigation safety at ship collisions

A great number of papers dedicated to ships collision on. The basic difficulty is a complex probable nature of this phenomenon on the one hand and considerable influence of the human factor (difficult to be formalized by mathematical methods) on the other. This paper suggests one of such models, simplified to a great extent. It doesn't, for example, describe dangerous situations when ships are going in one direction overtaking each other. Its practical importance is the matter to be discussed. But in any case the authors think that its getting more precise and complicated will give an impetus to a new approach to the problem. It will make possible to avoid subjectiveness and mistakes in the future at forecasting catastrophes.