Fast probabilistic design procedure for axially compressed composite cylinders

A semi-analytic probabilistic procedure is presented that enables a fast prediction of the stochastic distribution of buckling load of cylindrical shells caused by the scattering of geometry, wall-thickness, material properties and loading imperfection. Compared to Monte Carlo simulations the semi-analytic method requires significantly fewer buckling load calculations giving equally accurate results. Knowing the distribution function of buckling load, a level of reliability is chosen and a design load is defined, which is lower than all test results and less conservative than NASA SP-8007.

► A probabilistic design approach for composite cylindrical shells is given.
► The proposed semi-analytic approach is as accurate as Monte Carlo simulations.
► Probabilistic design allows a less conservative design than currently used guidelines.
► The reliability of several alternative design approaches is assessed.